As Vista’s release, the new Microsoft operating system, had been several times postponed, some observers noticed it could benefit Linux and increase the number of users of the free OS : it is now clear it didn’t and the monopoly of Microsoft on the market still remains.
Microsoft takes advantage of its market domination and, above all, of the pre-installation of Windows on new computers (75% of all new PC’s have Windows pre-installed on it). If only the real price of the operating system was clearly written on the buyer’s bill, a lot of consumers would think twice before paying 150$ and not having the choice at all.
The advantages of Linux are well known and for something you don’t have to pay charges for, this operating system is simply great. Distributions such as Suse or Ubuntu can technically obviously compete with Microsoft Vista but it is actually not the problem. It is somewhere else.
If you compare the show paid by Microsoft for Vista’s release and what happened for the release of, for instance, Dapper Drake, you just become aware of how big the advantage of Microsoft is. The strength of MS is its impressive marketing power : people who just do nothing but using their computers (and not living through it 
) will know about Vista. CNN offered a 15 minutes show to Gates (with some soft criticisms though). The day Mark Shuttleworth will get 5 minutes on television for the release of the next Ubuntu has not come…
Such a marketing campain is precisely what Linux companies can’t afford : if Canonical could pay for it, the whole world would talk about Edgy Eft, Beryl or Compiz and how innovative those softwares are.
The life cycle of XP is still not over (its support has been stretched until april 2009), but during this time, there has been no revolution in the way people use their computers, even if new technologies (many of them supported first by open-source and free softwares) appeared.
The only way analysts think the RSS feeds will become popular is their introduction into Internet Explorer 7, even if Thunderbird and Firefox (which are also available for Windows) already propose this feature. It is nothing new that Microsoft picks up the best of the other’s technology, integrates it in its products and spreads it everywhere as if it was their own.
But this time, open source and free software companies are supported in their development by giants of the sector (IBM, Sun, …), what should be a good source of income through support and services.
Moreover, the main strength of the free softwares is their communities. Thousand of involved users bring a lot of innovation : all the employees of the Redmond’s firm cannot be as inventive as hundred of thousand involved users who can directly communicate with the developpers.
Now that Linux is accepted as a competitive solution for servers and enterprises, it has to become popular on the desktop’s markt and need a powerful marketing campain in order to compete with Windows.It may have to get rid of this geeky image and show the consumers it is an innovative and professionnal product that anyone can use.
We have seen it since the beginning of the software industry : not the best product wins, but the one which has the best advertising campain.
February 2nd, 2007 at 3:28 am
Hi everybody,
Herve, thank you very much for opening this blog: I really hope it will be a place of debate and analysis!
I agree with your analysis of the situation but there are some points I want to give my opinion on. We can’t deny that the power of Microsoft (in terms of marketing especially) enables it to be THE operating system number one on personal computers. But I am convinced that such power is not sufficient to stay an unchallenged leader in the long term. For me, the problem of Linux is it doesn’t carry out an effective strategy to tackle Microsoft on its main weaknesses. We can see with Mozilla, Google, Winamp etc. that Windows is not totally allmighty when a challenger doesn’t fear to struggle it on its battle field… For me, Linux could win some market shares if they focus on Microsoft weaknesses: how many people complain about all the bugs of Bill Gates’ OS ? or about its security problems ? or the fact you’re forced to buy new versions every X year (of Office etc.) ? If Linux can convince general public that it is easy to use, more stable than Microsoft, more secure etc. , it could have a deep impact on the market shares… But a key point to succeed is to simplify the offer of Linux : you can have the best product, but if your potential customer must spend more than 10 seconds to choose you, you can be sure you’ll lose him (or her). Microsoft has understood that : names easy to remind (98, XP, Vista), not many versions etc. If Linux could reach such a level of readiness, it could really enter the PC market…
I’m not saying that Linux can compete with WIndows : no company can face this challenge… And if the rules don’t change (cf. Windows sold with every computer…), it will be impossible to reach more than 10% of the market to my mind… But why not believing in a booming decade similar to the current success of Apple after so many gloomy years?
To conclude, I’m sure that Linux has a potential to improve its position on the PC market, especially when we consider the professional market as a more “difficult” market than the one of general public. BUT Linux will be forced to adapt its strategy to the standards of mass marketing or it will be a waste of time, money and energy… And in this fight, finding a partner could be a key asset to succeed…
Castor
February 4th, 2007 at 9:43 pm
Thanks for your comment Castor
I will try to give you my opinion about your statement :
“We can see with Mozilla, Google, Winamp etc. that Windows is not totally allmighty when a challenger doesn’t fear to struggle it on its battle field…”
First of all, Google has become one of the giants of the IT industry in a few years, but its development has been based on a place Microsoft was far to control. Since the failure of its Microsoft Network, even though it succeeded with some products like Hotmail or MSN Live Messenger, MS has never been as powerful as it is on the operating system-market.
and since the beginning, with, for example RealPlayer, there has always been some challengers. This could be explain why the concurrence is tougher on this market segment.
Then concerning Winamp, I would rather have taken the Itunes in example, but one fact still remains : Microsoft’s Media Player really sucks
Last but not least : since AOL bought Netscape, there has been no real challenger to Microsoft’s Internet Explorer and until recently, browsers weren’t a priority for Microsoft anymore. Mozilla came on the market with some great features (like navigation tabs) and its improved security and only at this time Microsoft, fearing that Firefox become more popular (its market share represents about 20%), really developped IE7 (and, of course, copied it partially).
That’s in my opinion the best example why competition is essential for the quality of software products and shows how a free software can be successfull. Nonetheless, this success must be put in perspective : IE market shares still represent about 70% and the problem of its coupled installation with Windows remains.
To conclude the first part of my answer, I wouldn’t say that Mozilla, Google and Winamp struggled MS on its main battlefield but they managed to take into account either the leaks of Microsoft’s products or its absence on a given market.
I fully agree with you when you say the names of Linux distributions are too complicated. For example : Ubuntu 6.10. People don’t trust such numbers ! You have to give them clear and simple terms, so they can keep them in mind, moreover, the codenames of this distribution are awfully geeky : Breezy badger, Dapper drake, Warty hedgehog and so on… The only well-thought name among popular Linux Distributions is Mandriva 2007…
The only hope for a real competiton on the operating system-market is that american citizens and companies bring a class action in the USA and/or -for the europeans- that the European Commission not just only let MS pay fines but bann the automatic sale of Windows with new computers.
Just a last word : Microsoft used to base its former OS’s on DOS, and DOS means Dirty Operating System… it’s not as dirty as their sale methods !
February 5th, 2007 at 9:39 pm
I agree with your opinion when you tell my examples are not competitors on MS main battlefields. What I really wanted to show is that MS, with its billions of dollars and its impressive marketing strategy, can be judged on its product by the customers when there are best alternatives.
We can’t deny that a key point for Linux to succeed is the end of Microsoft’s control on the market… And I think that the situation won’t evolve depply in the years to come. That is why I believe the solution for Linux could be a partnership with a PC manufacturer. Apple , with its product and its OS is a good example. Without such a partner, it will be difficult for Linux to boom…
And a change in the “marketing strategy” of Linux is absolutely necessary : first, education is important, but education of basic users who believe that Linux is an OS for experts. Then, Linux must show that you can do with its softwares everything you do with MS. Moreover, Linux must show what is its added value. Finally, Linux should try to focus on MS weaknesses. I am convinced that such a strategy could be carried out without millions of dollars (even if it would be important to cary out a study to identify the different profiles of PS customers and MS users) : Herve, you told that the communities where essential for Linux : such communities could be the best network for a buzz marketing strategy (which can be really powerful). And even if I know that it won’t enable Linux to challenge MS, but reaching maybe 5 to 10 % of the PC market would be a fantastic beginning.
++
Castor
February 8th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
The problem on the market of operating systems is that “normal” people don’t even know there are alternatives ! You can hardly judge something as abstract as an OS if you have no choice at all. For a large part of the users, Windows IS the computer. So, as you said, Linux, and other operating systems as well, must struggle above all to become known within computer’s users, not just as distraction for a few geeks who just want to be different, but as real competitive alternatives.
The part of Linux users in the world is currently about 2.5% on personnal computers, what’s great on the one hand, but disappointing on the other hand within sight of the product’s quality.
The 4 best arguments for Linux are :
- Security (because of its open-source code)
- it is free of charges
- Privacy (you don’t really know what MS can do with your files…)
and the last (but not least) emerging tendency :
).
- Innovation (if Vista’s Aeroglass let you say “wow”, then Beryl, Linux’s 3D-Desktop, will let you fall from your seat
The problem is : you cannot do everything you do on windows (partly because of the hardware drivers, only available for Windows) . This is the problem of the egg and the hen : the more there are Linuy users, the more drivers will be available : Nvidia, Canon and others manufacturers already propose drivers (though proprietary ones) for Linux.
I agree with you, when you say the situation won’t evolve deeply in the next few years and Microsoft will not give up soon its position as a leader. Its pressure on manufacturers to ban any Linux-runned PC’s among their offer must be in any way quite huge.
Several little manufacturers (some of them are pure Ubuntu-community initiatives) appeared (http://system76.com/ in the USA http://www.novatux.com/ andhttp://ubuntu-pc.eu in France/Europe ) but even if the consumers save the price of the operating system, can those companies resist to the pressure of this global market ? I hope so…
February 26th, 2007 at 8:37 pm
News about Vista
http://www.theage.com.au/news/security/vista-still-vulnerable/2007/02/26/1172338546822.html
http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/microsoft/archives/111837.asp
http://vista.blorge.com/2007/02/26/microsoft-ceo-dont-be-too-optimistic-about-vista/
We have to wait a few months to have a better idea about Vista’s success or failure…
March 20th, 2007 at 6:31 pm
Here is a funny video to compare both capabilities of Vista’s 3D window manager aeroglass and Linux’s Beryl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xC5uEe5OzNQ